And the Oscar goes to...

Here’s my take on some of the bigger categories for this year’s Oscars (ceremony will take place on Sunday, March 5). I actually think the Academy did a nice job with most of the nominations this year; some great films came out in 2005. I haven’t read Doug’s Oscar blog yet (see below) so it’ll be interesting to see how his opinions compare to mine.

Best Documentary
Darwin’s Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Street Fight

I Haven't Seen: Darwin’s Nightmare and Street Fight.
Flubs: Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room - good material, just not put together well.
Snubs: Grizzly Man.
Will Win: March of the Penguins.
Should Win: March of the Penguins.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich

Flubs: None - a strong category.
Snubs: Walk the Line and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain.
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain.

Best Original Screenplay
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana

I Haven’t Seen: The Squid and the Whale.
Flubs: Syriana - story too hard to follow.
Snubs: Junebug and Nine Lives.
Will Win: Crash.
Should Win: Match Point.

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
William Hurt (A History of Violence)

Flubs: William Hurt - his performance was way over the top.
Snubs: Kevin Costner for The Upside of Anger.
Will Win: Toughest race to call. It’ll be between Clooney, Dillon, and Giamatti. I’m guessing Paul Giamatti.
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Francis McDormand (North Country)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)

Flubs: Catherine Keener and Frances McDormand - they’ve both been stronger in other roles.
Snubs: Maria Bello for A History of Violence.
Will Win: Rachel Weisz.
Should Win: Tough call between Weisz, Williams, and Adams, but I’ll go with Rachel Weisz.

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)

Flubs: None - a strong group.
Snubs: Others who deserved nominations are Ralph Fiennes for The Constant Gardener, and Viggo Mortensen for A History of Violence.
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman.
Should Win: Tough call between Ledger and Phoenix, but I’ll go with Heath Ledger.

Best Actress
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)

I Haven’t Seen: Mrs. Henderson Presents, Transamerica, and Pride & Prejudice.
Flubs: Hard for me to judge.
Snubs: Joan Allen for The Upside of Anger.
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon.
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon.

Best Director
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Bennett Miller (Capote)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)

Flubs: Bennett Miller and Paul Haggis - their nominations should have gone to...
Snubs: Fernando Meirelles for The Constant Gardener, and James Mangold for Walk the Line.
Will Win: Ang Lee.
Should Win: Ang Lee.

Best Motion Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

Flubs: Crash, Capote, and Good Night, and Good Luck - weaker films than...
Snubs: Walk the Line, The Constant Gardener, and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain.
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain.